Inside the Capitol

Monday, December 24, 2012

12-28 Prediction Results 2012

122812 prediction results 2012

SANTA FE – For most of this column's 25-plus years, it has been a tradition to look in the political crystal ball and predict the coming year's events. Late last year, this column made its usual list of predictions' Let's see how we did.
Our first prediction was that after a year of watching new Gov. Susana Martinez, we would know her better and be able to figure out what to expect from her. That was close to the mark. She didn't do much she hadn't done her first year.
Gov. Martinez continued to go after undocumented immigrant driver's licenses despite two defeats during her first year. She continued to advocate for children's issues. She continued to be guided by her political campaign advisers and she continued to receive some notoriety as the nation's first female Hispanic governor.
The governor eased up on her opposition to the film industry but didn't attempt to change any of the restrictions placed on the industry during her first year in office. Martinez also eased her Luke-warm attitude toward the spaceport but it continues to die on the vine.
But Martinez's popularity has continued to soar around 60 percent. Perhaps the message is that New Mexicans prefer a governor who doesn't take a lot of bold actions as her predecessor and several of her current Republican gubernatorial colleagues are doing in other states.
We must face the fact that New Mexicans have a very different governor than most we have had in the past, Republican or Democrat. Maybe she will be more like Bruce King than any other New Mexico governor.
Gov. Martinez will not build a spaceport or railroad ala Bill Richardson. She won't be a highway or prison builder like Gary Johnson. Or reorganize all of state government as Jerry Apodaca did. Or bring in the movie industry and star in a dozen or more films as Dave Cargo did, Or build a new capital building as Jack Campbell did. Or build a new governor's residence as Ed Mechem did.
Gov. Martinez will continue to be sweet Susana to most New Mexicans.
Some of that luster may wear off as she heads toward to end of her term and a reelection campaign. Not all would be due to her. Staff and others responsible for carrying out her initiatives may affect her standing.
Our predictions of winners in last June's primary elections were all correct. Mitt Romney, Heather Wilson, Martin Heinrich, Steve Pearce and Ben Ray Lujan all won their races.
We predicted Albuquerque Mayor R.J. Berry would keep Republicans on pins and needles on whether he will seek reelection in October 2003 that prediction still holds. He's still keeping them guessing.
The crystal ball revealed former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson winning the Libertarian Party presidential nomination last May and then encountering the same problems he did when he tried for the Republican nomination. No one wanted to notice him despite, or because of, some very colorful stands.
A year ago, I made some predictions about the New Mexico Aggie football and basketball teams continuing to dominate the University of New Mexico men's' teams. Coaching and player changes have begun to change that. I look forward to the day when both teams will be playing at a high level – and in the same league.
Finally, a very easy prediction -- the world will not end any time soon despite some of our best efforts to destroy it. There is something in human nature that needs or desires an Armageddon. We just passed another one that was a little bigger than the rest. But it will not discourage some folks. There will be more to come.


Post a Comment

<< Home